The latest CPI data is released： Have the prices of fruits, pork and vegetables been reduced？

　　Beijing, August 9 (Xie Yiguan) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, hitting a new high of nearly 17 months, and the growth rate was in the "2 era" for five consecutive months. Many experts believe that the price increase of pork and fresh fruit is still an important factor for the expansion of CPI. Prices will remain relatively stable in the later period, and CPI may generally level off or slightly decrease in the third quarter.

　　The CPI increase in July continued in the "2 era"

　　In July, the CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, continuing to be in the "2 era".

　　Dong Yaxiu, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in food, the price of fresh fruit rose in July, the price of pork continued to rise, and the prices of eggs, chicken, beef, mutton and fresh vegetables also increased to some extent. Among non-food items, the prices of medical care, education, culture, entertainment and housing have increased.

　　On the whole, multiple factors promote the increase of CPI. "According to estimates, in the year-on-year increase of 2.8% in July, the impact of price changes last year was about 1.2 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.6 percentage points." Dong Yaxiu said.

　　In July, food prices rose by 9.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 1.74 percentage points. Non-food prices rose by 1.3%, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase by about 1.04 percentage points.

　　Fresh fruit and pork push up the overall price.

　　Among the food prices, the prices of pork and fresh fruit have always been a topic of public concern, and it is also an important factor affecting the price increase and change of CPI food.

　　Statistics show that in July, the price of fresh fruit rose by 39.1%, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.63 percentage points. Pork prices rose by 27.0%, affecting CPI by about 0.59 percentage points.

　　According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average wholesale price of pork in July increased by 8.8% month-on-month and 29.2% year-on-year. The average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits was 8.65 yuan per kilogram, down 2.5% from the previous month and up 45.4% from the same period last year.

　　"The increase in CPI in July has been expanded, largely due to the increase in food prices. At present, the impact of African swine fever on pork prices is difficult to eliminate in the short term. Vegetables and fruits are affected by the increase in seasons, climate, transportation and storage costs, and prices fluctuate greatly." Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of China Renmin University, told the reporter.

　　Will the prices of fruits and pork continue to rise?

　　The reporter recently visited many supermarkets in Beijing and found that the prices of some seasonal fruits, such as watermelons and grapes, have dropped, the price of peaches has dropped to around 4-5 yuan, and the price of pork is still firm.

　　According to the information released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce, since August, the price of fruit has dropped and the price of pork has continued to rise.

　　Regarding the fruit price trend in the later period, Keke, director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that with the large number of seasonal fruits coming into the market in summer recently, the total supply in the fruit market is sufficient and the variety is diverse, and the price increase is slowing down, which is expected to enter a seasonal downward trend in the later period.

　　In the face of rising pork prices, Zhao Jinhou, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, believes that from the current high pig prices in the off-season, African swine fever has had a relatively obvious impact on the national production capacity in the past year, and both production areas and sales areas are in a tight state of supply and demand. When the peak consumption season comes in the second half of the year, the price of live pigs may increase significantly.

　　Keke said that due to the increase in the output of poultry meat, eggs, milk and other livestock and poultry products, the adjustment of consumption structure was accelerated, and the quantity of imported pork and its products also increased, the meat market supply was generally guaranteed.

　　What is the price trend in the future?

　　The national agricultural product wholesale market price information system shows that from August 2 to August 8, the price of pork continued to rise, the price of fruit declined, the price of vegetables increased compared with last week, and the price of eggs dropped slightly.

　　According to the macro research report of CICC, looking forward, as the base gradually rises, the upward pressure of CPI will weaken, and CPI may generally level off or decrease slightly in the third quarter.

　　"Affected by uncertain factors such as Sino-US trade friction, the price increase will change," Zhao Xijun told reporters, but overall, prices will remain relatively stable in the later period.

　　3% is the control target of CPI year-on-year average increase. After the increase of 2.8% in July, many people are concerned about whether the price will increase by more than 3%.

　　In this regard, Qin Tai, a senior macro analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, believes that many factors are changing, and it is estimated that the year-on-year average CPI in 2019 will be 2.3%, slightly higher than 0.2 percentage points in 2018.

　　As for whether the monthly CPI increase will exceed 3%, "at present, if the uncertainties can be controlled, this possibility is not great." Zhao Xijun said. (End)